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Games Total: O/U 4.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $158.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.2KEvent: LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Playoffs
16.0¢
Over
84.0¢
Under
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection70Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution51Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%
24h sample:9 trades$43.4K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$12.9K@ 80¢·Zzzz87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $30.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$30.5K
6h
−$32.7K
tracked
$43.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if T1 and BNK FEARX play 5 or more games in this series.

•If fewer than 5 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between T1 and BNK FEARX in the LCK Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if T1 and BNK FEARX play 5 or more games in this series. If fewer than 5 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 29, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x7A3f9C2D8b41E6a570F2c93B1d4E8A3 linked markets · $100.0K gross
Zzzz873 linked markets · $36.4K gross
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $7.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 79.0¢36m ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: Over DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $2 → $732 · 88s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $30.5K
6hUnder · $32.7K
24hUnder · $38.4K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.0¢
VWAP 24h21.6¢▼ below by 5.6pp
VWAP 7d21.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$43.4K
15¢
← now
$1
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$12.9K@ 80.0¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—44 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Zzzz87Under$27.6K
BUY VWAP 79.1¢·3 fills
bloodmasterUnder$13.3K
BUY VWAP 77.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.