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US Open ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin

● quote 46s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $246.6KEvent: US Open ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin
65.0¢
Grigor Dimitrov
36.0¢
Alexei Popyrin
100.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$132.4K tracked27% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Grigor Dimitrov · $105.1K net·2 wallets(2🐋)·$115.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGrigor Dimitrov$92.6K@ 64¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$78.8K
tracked
$132.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Grigor Dimitrov · $105.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
100.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -65.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 65 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 100.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Grigor Dimitrov and Alexei Popyrin in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Grigor Dimitrov' if Grigor Dimitrov advances against Alexei Popyrin. This market will resolve to 'Alexei Popyrin' if Alexei Popyrin advances against Grigor Dimitrov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Grigor Dimitrov@ 65.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Grigor Dimitrov; negative values favor Alexei Popyrin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGrigor Dimitrov · $0
6hGrigor Dimitrov · $78.8K
24hGrigor Dimitrov · $88.3K

Grigor Dimitrov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Grigor Dimitrov price. Alexei Popyrin fills are converted to the complementary Grigor Dimitrov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.0¢
VWAP 24h64.2¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d64.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Grigor Dimitrov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$18.1K
60¢
$114.3K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlexei Popyrin$12.5K@ 36.3¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYGrigor Dimitrov$92.6K@ 64.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYGrigor Dimitrov$11.7K@ 65.7¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Grigor Dimitrov$97.5K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Grigor Dimitrov$12.8K
BUY VWAP 65.7¢·2 fills
NiNo999Alexei Popyrin$12.5K
BUY VWAP 36.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.