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US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $63.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $725.6KEvent: US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken
81.0¢
Luciano Darderi
19.0¢
Harry Wendelken
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets20Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:173 trades$315.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Luciano Darderi · $34.8K net·12 wallets(3🐋)·$171.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuciano Darderi$41.0K@ 81¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Luciano Darderi pressure: $23.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$23.5K
6h
+$28.0K
tracked
$315.4K

12 verified profitable wallets: Luciano Darderi · $34.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 86% · priority 48

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Luciano Darderi or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luciano Darderi and Harry Wendelken in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Harry Wendelken. This market will resolve to 'Harry Wendelken' if Harry Wendelken advances against Luciano Darderi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Luciano Darderi@ 81.0¢1m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Luciano Darderi@ 82.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Luciano Darderi@ 82.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
Latest book event: Luciano Darderi DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $492 → $2.0K · 45s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luciano Darderi; negative values favor Harry Wendelken. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLuciano Darderi · $23.5K
6hLuciano Darderi · $28.0K
24hLuciano Darderi · $51.8K

Luciano Darderi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luciano Darderi price. Harry Wendelken fills are converted to the complementary Luciano Darderi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current81.0¢
VWAP 24h67.9¢▲ above by 13.1pp
VWAP 7d68.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luciano Darderi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$104
85¢
$9.2K
80¢
← now
$53.7K
75¢
$25.3K
70¢
$54.0K
65¢
$53.3K
60¢
$15.0K
55¢
$108.1K
50¢
$3.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLuciano Darderi$41.0K@ 81.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—6 minutes ago
SELLLuciano Darderi$10.8K@ 77.6¢0x5f65…2036🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYHarry Wendelken$18.8K@ 43.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHarry Wendelken$19.9K@ 43.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLuciano Darderi$10.0K@ 58.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLuciano Darderi$16.0K@ 68.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYHarry Wendelken$11.0K@ 33.0¢
fRibrenlc0x6f3e…bcf8
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYLuciano Darderi$12.2K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Luciano Darderi$57.0K
BUY VWAP 76.9¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Harry Wendelken$25.9K
BUY VWAP 43.2¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Luciano Darderi$22.6K
BUY VWAP 73.5¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Harry Wendelken$20.4K
BUY VWAP 43.1¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Luciano Darderi$19.0K
BUY VWAP 57.8¢·2 fills
tradecraftLuciano Darderi$16.2K
BUY VWAP 63.9¢·4 fills
0x076d…8d4cLuciano Darderi$13.2K
BUY VWAP 63.1¢·5 fills
fRibrenlcHarry Wendelken$11.0K
BUY VWAP 33.0¢·1 fill
TRCMLuciano Darderi$10.2K
BUY VWAP 58.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.