PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $178.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $457.1KEvent: US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac
97.5¢
Toby Samuel
2.5¢
Tomas Machac
0.7¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:79 trades$228.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tomas Machac · $2.4K net·5 wallets·$11.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToby Samuel$60.5K@ 63¢·11vsldfdsgfkjgos

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Toby Samuel pressure: $7.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.2K
6h
+$155.1K
tracked
$228.0K

5 verified profitable wallets: Tomas Machac · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +30.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 30.8pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Toby Samuel or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Samuel and Tomas Machac in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Toby Samuel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Toby Samuel1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Toby Samuel1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Toby Samuel@ 67.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Toby Samuel@ 63.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +32.0pp
Latest book event: Toby Samuel DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $26.5K → $11.4K · 35s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Toby Samuel; negative values favor Tomas Machac. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hToby Samuel · $7.2K
6hToby Samuel · $155.1K
24hToby Samuel · $155.1K

Toby Samuel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Toby Samuel price. Tomas Machac fills are converted to the complementary Toby Samuel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.5¢
VWAP 24h66.0¢▲ above by 31.5pp
VWAP 7d66.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Toby Samuel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.2K
90¢
$2.1K
85¢
$21.4K
80¢
$2.0K
75¢
$153
70¢
$0
65¢
$7.5K
60¢
$166.3K
55¢
$21.4K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYToby Samuel$16.7K@ 64.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTomas Machac$14.0K@ 40.6¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYToby Samuel$10.2K@ 61.6¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYToby Samuel$60.5K@ 62.6¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYToby Samuel$17.3K@ 60.6¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Legacy (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
100.0¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane
34.7¢$1.6Mpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
0.1¢$529.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?
63.5¢$471.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby
86.5¢$413.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open WTA: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska
100.0¢$402.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$395.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers
94.5¢$358.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

11vsldfdsgfkjgosToby Samuel$156.0K
BUY VWAP 62.4¢·15 fills
NiNo999Tomas Machac$14.0K
BUY VWAP 40.6¢·1 fill
0x979f…4032Toby Samuel$11.1K
BUY VWAP 87.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.