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Zhangjiagang: Joshua Charlton vs Takuya Kumasaka

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $213.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $192.1KEvent: Zhangjiagang: Joshua Charlton vs Takuya Kumasaka
84.0¢
Joshua Charlton
16.0¢
Takuya Kumasaka
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:64 trades$49.9K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Takuya Kumasaka · $33.5K net·4 wallets·$44.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTakuya Kumasaka$6.9K@ 40¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$5
6h
−$28.4K
tracked
$49.9K

4 verified profitable wallets: Takuya Kumasaka · $33.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Joshua Charlton and Takuya Kumasaka in the Zhangjiagang, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joshua Charlton' if Joshua Charlton advances against Takuya Kumasaka. This market will resolve to 'Takuya Kumasaka' if Takuya Kumasaka advances against Joshua Charlton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Takuya Kumasaka1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Takuya Kumasaka@ 16.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Takuya Kumasaka@ 36.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -20.0pp
Latest book event: Takuya Kumasaka DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $14.3K → $8.2K · 21s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Joshua Charlton; negative values favor Takuya Kumasaka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTakuya Kumasaka · $5
6hTakuya Kumasaka · $28.4K
24hTakuya Kumasaka · $28.4K

Joshua Charlton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Joshua Charlton price. Takuya Kumasaka fills are converted to the complementary Joshua Charlton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current84.0¢
VWAP 24h66.9¢▲ above by 17.1pp
VWAP 7d66.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Joshua Charlton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$8.8K
80¢
← now
$60
75¢
$12.3K
70¢
$4.9K
65¢
$207
60¢
$11.0K
55¢
$5.1K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$135
35¢
$7.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Takuya Kumasaka$38.9K
BUY VWAP 27.6¢·11 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.