PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma end in a draw?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $84.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $193.2KEvent: Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma
52.5¢
YES
47.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly44Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$73.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $17.5K net·5 wallets·$17.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$25.9K@ 74¢·N34

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$952
6h
−$21.2K
tracked
$73.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $17.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -26.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-10 16:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 10, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $69.5K gross
mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $32.9K gross
RN13 linked markets · $31.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 44.5¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 42.5¢17m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 74.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $316 → $147 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $952
6hNO · $21.2K
24hNO · $21.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h26.5¢▲ above by 26.0pp
VWAP 7d26.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$5
40¢
$9
35¢
$9
30¢
$3
25¢
$72.9K
20¢
$933
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.8K@ 27.0¢
tes21sa0x20b8…aa04
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$25.9K@ 74.0¢
N340xfd67…ef90
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-09-10?
2.6¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
2.1¢$669.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-10?
90.5¢$467.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-09-10?
57.5¢$464.3Kpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$432.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-10?
91.5¢$422.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Klim Sani4 - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$408.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

N34No$25.9K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
RN1No$11.6K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·3 fills
tes21saYes$10.8K
BUY VWAP 27.0¢·1 fill
namasanaYes$10.1K
BUY VWAP 26.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.