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Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Manon Fiorot (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: Alexa GrassoLiquidity: $374.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $315.6KEvent: Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Manon Fiorot (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)
100.0¢
Alexa Grasso payout
0.0¢
Manon Fiorot payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:85 trades$139.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 65 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Manon Fiorot · $5.2K net·11 wallets·$29.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYManon Fiorot$40.0K@ 72¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alexa Grasso. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-13 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alexa Grasso" if Alexa Grasso is officially declared the winner of the fight against Manon Fiorot at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Manon Fiorot" if Manon Fiorot is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Alexa Grasso" if Alexa Grasso is officially declared the winner of the fight against Manon Fiorot at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Manon Fiorot" if Manon Fiorot is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Manon Fiorot@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Alexa Grasso DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $2.1K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexa Grasso; negative values favor Manon Fiorot. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hManon Fiorot · $25.4K
6hManon Fiorot · $55.8K
24hManon Fiorot · $57.6K

Alexa Grasso price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexa Grasso price. Manon Fiorot fills are converted to the complementary Alexa Grasso probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h55.7¢▲ above by 44.3pp
VWAP 7d54.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexa Grasso price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$36.2K
90¢
$6.8K
85¢
$3.3K
80¢
$5.1K
75¢
$702
70¢
$5.7K
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$4.5K
25¢
$78.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYManon Fiorot$40.0K@ 72.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYManon Fiorot$15.9K@ 72.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafManon Fiorot$55.9K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.