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Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

● quote 48s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $58.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.8KEvent: New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
41.5¢
Tampa Bay Rays
58.5¢
New York Mets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$53.3K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 85 min agoofficial metadata 17s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tampa Bay Rays · $4.4K net·2 wallets·$7.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays$25.0K@ 46¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$25.5K
tracked
$53.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Tampa Bay Rays · $4.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 85 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "New York Mets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "New York Mets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 31 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "New York Mets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "New York Mets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $43.0K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $7.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
Latest book event: New York Mets UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $5.4K → $11.5K · 81s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tampa Bay Rays; negative values favor New York Mets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTampa Bay Rays · $0
6hTampa Bay Rays · $25.5K
24hTampa Bay Rays · $40.5K

Tampa Bay Rays price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tampa Bay Rays price. New York Mets fills are converted to the complementary Tampa Bay Rays probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h45.3¢▼ below by 3.8pp
VWAP 7d45.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tampa Bay Rays price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$32.5K
40¢
← now
$20.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays$25.0K@ 46.0¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays$10.0K@ 44.4¢
Berniepaidoff0xc506…e987
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NiNo999Tampa Bay Rays$25.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
BerniepaidoffTampa Bay Rays$15.0K
BUY VWAP 44.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.