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Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Real Madrid CF O/U 0.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $7.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $6.7KEvent: Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
96.9¢
Over
3.1¢
Under
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$32.4K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 235 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$8.6K@ 98¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$27.2K
tracked
$32.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Over · $47.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 235 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•In the upcoming La Liga game between Real Madrid CF and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, scheduled for September 12 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Real Madrid CF score 1 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If Real Madrid CF score less than 1 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on Real Madrid CF's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game between Real Madrid CF and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, scheduled for September 12 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Real Madrid CF score 1 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If Real Madrid CF score less than 1 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on Real Madrid CF's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hOver · $27.2K
24hOver · $32.4K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.9¢
VWAP 24h97.5¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d97.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$47.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Over$47.6K
BUY VWAP 97.6¢·21 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.