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Plovdiv 3: Valerio Aboian vs Sebastian Sorger

Sports→Settlement: Valerio AboianLiquidity: $336.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $324.1KEvent: Plovdiv 3: Valerio Aboian vs Sebastian Sorger
100.0¢
Valerio Aboian payout
0.0¢
Sebastian Sorger payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Valerio Aboian · $1.1K net·5 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSebastian Sorger$13.1K@ 78¢·0x5f65…2036

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Valerio Aboian. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-10 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Sebastian Sorger in the Plovdiv 3, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Sebastian Sorger. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Sorger' if Sebastian Sorger advances against Valerio Aboian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Sebastian Sorger1d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Sebastian Sorger1d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Sebastian Sorger@ 78.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +24.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Sebastian Sorger@ 71.0¢1d ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valerio Aboian; negative values favor Sebastian Sorger. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSebastian Sorger · $27.3K
6hValerio Aboian · $1.5K
24hValerio Aboian · $1.5K

Valerio Aboian price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valerio Aboian price. Sebastian Sorger fills are converted to the complementary Valerio Aboian probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h59.0¢▲ above by 41.0pp
VWAP 7d59.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valerio Aboian price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$38.1K
90¢
$5.9K
85¢
$0
80¢
$8.2K
75¢
$2.2K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$563
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$9.2K
45¢
$8.1K
40¢
$19.3K
35¢
$2.2K
30¢
$11
25¢
$1.4K
20¢
$29.8K
15¢
$10
10¢
$7.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLValerio Aboian$11.3K@ 99.9¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—1 day ago
SELLSebastian Sorger$13.1K@ 77.8¢0x5f65…2036🐋—1 day ago
SELLSebastian Sorger$13.0K@ 77.5¢0x5f65…2036🐋—1 day ago
BUYSebastian Sorger$11.0K@ 57.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Sebastian Sorger$19.1K
BUY VWAP 56.8¢·2 fills
0xc323…0077Valerio Aboian$11.3K
BUY VWAP 20.9¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.