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US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $40.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $575.0KEvent: US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova
89.5¢
Emma Navarro
10.5¢
Karolina Muchova
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets19Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:146 trades$291.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karolina Muchova · $7.9K net·14 wallets·$43.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLEmma Navarro$47.2K@ 85¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Karolina Muchova pressure: $26.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$26.3K
6h
−$19.8K
tracked
$291.9K

14 verified profitable wallets: Karolina Muchova · $7.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 88% · priority 48

Since latest market sweep: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Karolina Muchova or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Navarro and Karolina Muchova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emma Navarro' if Emma Navarro advances against Karolina Muchova. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Muchova' if Karolina Muchova advances against Emma Navarro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Emma Navarro@ 90.0¢0m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Emma Navarro45m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Emma Navarro@ 51.0¢51m ago
15m CONFIRMED +23.0pp
Latest book event: Emma Navarro UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $6.1K → $14.3K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Emma Navarro; negative values favor Karolina Muchova. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKarolina Muchova · $26.3K
6hKarolina Muchova · $19.8K
24hKarolina Muchova · $21.9K

Emma Navarro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Emma Navarro price. Karolina Muchova fills are converted to the complementary Emma Navarro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h61.4¢▲ above by 28.1pp
VWAP 7d61.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Emma Navarro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$99.7K
80¢
$3.2K
75¢
$979
70¢
$7.8K
65¢
$4.3K
60¢
$14.8K
55¢
$52.7K
50¢
$11.6K
45¢
$47.9K
40¢
$9.2K
35¢
$11.5K
30¢
$1.6K
25¢
$3.7K
20¢
$15.8K
15¢
$7.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLEmma Navarro$22.2K@ 85.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—3 minutes ago
SELLEmma Navarro$47.2K@ 85.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—4 minutes ago
SELLEmma Navarro$11.6K@ 85.0¢
unknownloser10x5c50…e0c9
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYEmma Navarro$15.0K@ 48.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYEmma Navarro$36.6K@ 58.1¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYEmma Navarro$11.1K@ 61.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYEmma Navarro$10.0K@ 35.2¢
unknownloser10x5c50…e0c9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Emma Navarro$47.7K
BUY VWAP 58.7¢·2 fills
0x78be…bde0Emma Navarro$15.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
FlaznorpEmma Navarro$10.0K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·2 fills
unknownloser1Emma Navarro$10.0K
BUY VWAP 35.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.