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US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $285.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.6KEvent: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
64.5¢
Alex Michelsen
35.5¢
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 91%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$41.4K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 45s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $2.8K net·3 wallets·$7.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$20.3K@ 61¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$634
6h
+$32.6K
tracked
$41.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: Alex Michelsen · $2.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 91% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Michelsen@ 65.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Daniel Merida Aguilar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $634
6hAlex Michelsen · $32.6K
24hAlex Michelsen · $32.6K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Daniel Merida Aguilar fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h62.2¢▲ above by 2.3pp
VWAP 7d62.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$7.2K
60¢
← now
$34.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$20.3K@ 61.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbc43…96d3Alex Michelsen$20.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.