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US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone

● quote 10s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $313.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $477.2KEvent: US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone
74.5¢
Tomas Etcheverry
25.5¢
Mariano Navone
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets76Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:117 trades$208.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 20s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tomas Etcheverry · $41.7K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$54.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMariano Navone$30.0K@ 49¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Tomas Etcheverry pressure: $28.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$28.2K
6h
−$2.0K
tracked
$208.3K

10 verified profitable wallets: Tomas Etcheverry · $41.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tomas Etcheverry or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Mariano Navone in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Mariano Navone. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Tomas Etcheverry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mariano Navone@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Mariano Navone@ 48.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tomas Etcheverry@ 51.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: Tomas Etcheverry UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $11.6K → $1.2K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tomas Etcheverry; negative values favor Mariano Navone. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Etcheverry · $28.2K
6hMariano Navone · $2.0K
24hTomas Etcheverry · $29.2K

Tomas Etcheverry price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tomas Etcheverry price. Mariano Navone fills are converted to the complementary Tomas Etcheverry probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h54.0¢▲ above by 20.5pp
VWAP 7d54.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tomas Etcheverry price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$16.7K
55¢
$54.4K
50¢
$137.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTomas Etcheverry$10.0K@ 54.9¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMariano Navone$23.0K@ 47.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMariano Navone$30.0K@ 49.3¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYTomas Etcheverry$17.5K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYMariano Navone$11.4K@ 49.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Tomas Etcheverry$30.4K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·4 fills
BrotherObamaMariano Navone$30.0K
BUY VWAP 49.3¢·1 fill
0x78be…bde0Mariano Navone$23.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Tomas Etcheverry$15.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
AV23IUaMariano Navone$11.4K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.