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Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $92.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $510.6KEvent: Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
3.5¢
Washington Nationals
96.5¢
San Diego Padres
0.7¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:87 trades$258.6K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Diego Padres · $8.1K net·5 wallets·$17.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$61.2K@ 63¢·texaskid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Washington Nationals pressure: $29.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$29.8K
6h
−$125.9K
tracked
$258.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: San Diego Padres · $8.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +51.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 51.8pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Washington Nationals or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres, scheduled for September 9 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $9.1K gross
0x7cb4…b6e12 linked markets · $44 gross
0x76d2…99a62 linked markets · $32 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY San Diego Padres41m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Washington Nationals1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +49.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Washington Nationals@ 56.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -51.0pp
Latest book event: San Diego Padres UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $42.2K → $39.8K · 64s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Washington Nationals; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWashington Nationals · $29.8K
6hSan Diego Padres · $125.9K
24hSan Diego Padres · $119.0K

Washington Nationals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Washington Nationals price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Washington Nationals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.5¢
VWAP 24h40.6¢▼ below by 37.0pp
VWAP 7d40.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Washington Nationals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.7K
60¢
$4.6K
55¢
$40.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$24.0K
40¢
$67
35¢
$176.5K
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$4.7K
15¢
$2
10¢
$3.8K
5¢
$1.6K
0¢
← now
$26

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWashington Nationals$14.0K@ 57.0¢
787-HUEV-W-ZOPE0xdd63…050f
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$15.0K@ 64.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$12.2K@ 64.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$22.9K@ 64.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$25.6K@ 64.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$61.2K@ 63.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

texaskidSan Diego Padres$61.2K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
xifutloong3San Diego Padres$50.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·3 fills
SDTradingSan Diego Padres$25.6K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
787-HUEV-W-ZOPEWashington Nationals$22.9K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·2 fills
kingflopSan Diego Padres$19.5K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·4 fills
jarosbillWashington Nationals$16.8K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.