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Plovdiv 3: Yanaki Milev vs Valerio Aboian

● quote 23s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $369.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $456.4KEvent: Plovdiv 3: Yanaki Milev vs Valerio Aboian
100.0¢
Yanaki Milev
0.1¢
Valerio Aboian
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$183.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Yanaki Milev · $208 net·11 wallets·$33.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYValerio Aboian$20.0K@ 60¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Valerio Aboian pressure: $13.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$13.7K
6h
−$63.6K
tracked
$183.8K

11 verified profitable wallets: Yanaki Milev · $208 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -46.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Valerio Aboian or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yanaki Milev and Valerio Aboian in the Plovdiv 3, originally scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yanaki Milev' if Yanaki Milev advances against Valerio Aboian. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Yanaki Milev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Valerio Aboian1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Valerio Aboian@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Valerio Aboian@ 73.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -39.0pp1h INVALIDATED -55.0pp
Latest book event: Yanaki Milev UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $46.9K → $27.5K · 14s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Yanaki Milev; negative values favor Valerio Aboian. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValerio Aboian · $13.7K
6hValerio Aboian · $63.6K
24hValerio Aboian · $61.8K

Yanaki Milev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Yanaki Milev price. Valerio Aboian fills are converted to the complementary Yanaki Milev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h62.0¢▲ above by 38.0pp
VWAP 7d62.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Yanaki Milev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.8K
90¢
$3.4K
85¢
$2.8K
80¢
$3.6K
75¢
$33.1K
70¢
$11.5K
65¢
$182
60¢
$10.1K
55¢
$8.3K
50¢
$28.1K
45¢
$972
40¢
$40.2K
35¢
$362
30¢
$11.4K
25¢
$7.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYValerio Aboian$10.0K@ 46.6¢
soukaev0x7568…2ce1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLYanaki Milev$17.6K@ 76.2¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYValerio Aboian$10.0K@ 55.4¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYValerio Aboian$20.0K@ 59.7¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Valerio Aboian$31.4K
BUY VWAP 58.1¢·3 fills
soukaevValerio Aboian$10.0K
BUY VWAP 46.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.