Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?

● quote just now

UncategorizedCloses: 21 daysLiquidity: $3.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $70.4KEvent: Foldable iPhone Announced Price?

37.5¢

YES

62.5¢

3.0¢

Spread

anomaly21Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution6Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:13 trades$9.4K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$3.2K@ 67¢·Unfinished-July

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$60

+$186

tracked

$9.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-01 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first price publicly announced by Apple for a foldable iPhone for the US market is greater than or equal to the specified amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•If Apple does not publicly announce a price for a foldable iPhone by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

Apple is scheduled to hold its "Surprise and Shine" event at 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first price publicly announced by Apple for a foldable iPhone for the US market is greater than or equal to the specified amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The price used for resolution will be the starting price (USD) as first announced by Apple for the lowest-priced configuration of a foldable iPhone in the US market, before taxes, carrier subsidies, trade-in credits, promotional discounts, or bundled services. Prices announced for other regions or for higher storage configurations will not be used. Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify as a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone. If Apple announces prices for more than one foldable iPhone model, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not publicly announce a price for a foldable iPhone by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $65 → $65 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $60

6hYES · $186

24hNO · $6.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current37.5¢

VWAP 24h44.0¢▼ below by 6.5pp

VWAP 7d44.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

$1.5K

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

$1.3K

50¢

45¢

40¢

$25

35¢

← now

30¢

$5.4K

25¢

20¢

$22

15¢

$1.2K

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…

Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity