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US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $75.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $695.8KEvent: US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend
98.5¢
Aryna Sabalenka
1.5¢
Taylor Townsend
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection25Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets80Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:114 trades$312.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aryna Sabalenka · $144.8K net·15 wallets(3🐋)·$180.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAryna Sabalenka$30.8K@ 88¢·0b1fe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Aryna Sabalenka pressure: $77.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$77.1K
6h
+$205.1K
tracked
$312.1K

15 verified profitable wallets: Aryna Sabalenka · $144.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: +19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 19.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aryna Sabalenka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Taylor Townsend in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Taylor Townsend. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Townsend' if Taylor Townsend advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aryna Sabalenka39m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Aryna Sabalenka39m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Aryna Sabalenka39m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 80.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: Taylor Townsend DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $21.3K → $11.4K · 28s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aryna Sabalenka; negative values favor Taylor Townsend. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAryna Sabalenka · $77.1K
6hAryna Sabalenka · $205.1K
24hAryna Sabalenka · $211.6K

Aryna Sabalenka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aryna Sabalenka price. Taylor Townsend fills are converted to the complementary Aryna Sabalenka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.5¢
VWAP 24h84.3¢▲ above by 14.2pp
VWAP 7d84.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aryna Sabalenka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$13.7K
85¢
$100.7K
80¢
$190.2K
75¢
$7.2K
70¢
$280
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAryna Sabalenka$30.8K@ 88.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$29.4K@ 88.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$19.2K@ 81.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$12.2K@ 81.0¢
tradecraft0xde9f…d43c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaylor Townsend$11.3K@ 18.6¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$17.1K@ 83.7¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Aryna Sabalenka$43.0K
BUY VWAP 86.4¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardAryna Sabalenka$39.0K
BUY VWAP 83.7¢·8 fills
FlaznorpAryna Sabalenka$37.3K
BUY VWAP 81.5¢·6 fills
0b1feAryna Sabalenka$35.1K
BUY VWAP 87.9¢·2 fills
3edmond.dantesTaylor Townsend$22.6K
BUY VWAP 18.8¢·3 fills
kkookkooAryna Sabalenka$17.1K
BUY VWAP 83.7¢·1 fill
tradecraftAryna Sabalenka$16.1K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.