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Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $32.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $97.7KEvent: LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
74.5¢
Ninjas in Pyjamas
25.5¢
JD Gaming
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:38 trades$40.8K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJD Gaming$3.3K@ 49¢·vtcchampion52

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

JD Gaming pressure: $40.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$40.7K
6h
−$40.7K
tracked
$40.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from JD Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas wins 2 or more games than JD Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "JD Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and JD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas wins 2 or more games than JD Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "JD Gaming". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 5, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
JaJa8883 linked markets · $100.7K gross
vtcchampion524 linked markets · $61.7K gross
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $44.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Ninjas in Pyjamas UP 11.0pp · near-book depth $4 → $15.7K · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ninjas in Pyjamas; negative values favor JD Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJD Gaming · $40.7K
6hJD Gaming · $40.7K
24hJD Gaming · $40.7K

Ninjas in Pyjamas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ninjas in Pyjamas price. JD Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Ninjas in Pyjamas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h53.4¢▲ above by 21.1pp
VWAP 7d53.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ninjas in Pyjamas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$6.2K
50¢
$34.6K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

vtcchampion52JD Gaming$40.7K
BUY VWAP 46.6¢·34 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.