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Canadiens vs. Penguins

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $392.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $5.1KEvent: Canadiens vs. Penguins
52.5¢
Canadiens
47.5¢
Penguins
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly24Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$35.7K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPenguins$35.5K@ 47¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$251
6h
−$35.7K
tracked
$35.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Penguins · $35.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens".

•If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 3 at 7:00PM ET: If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens". If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Canadiens; negative values favor Penguins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPenguins · $251
6hPenguins · $35.7K
24hPenguins · $35.7K

Canadiens price VWAP

Volume-weighted Canadiens price. Penguins fills are converted to the complementary Canadiens probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h53.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d53.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Canadiens price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$35.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPenguins$35.5K@ 47.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Talvez10Penguins$35.5K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.