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Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 38.5

Sports→Settlement: OverLiquidity: $8.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $63.2KEvent: US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
100.0¢
Over payout
0.0¢
Under. payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:9 trades$30.2K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 183 min agoofficial metadata 116 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $226 net·2 wallets·$226 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$20.0K@ 55¢·HectorHuang

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Over. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-15 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 39. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 39. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official Grand Slam statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HectorHuang2 linked markets · $34.7K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $28.9K gross
highlvl2 linked markets · $5.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 85.0¢6h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hOver · $29.0K
24hOver · $27.9K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under. fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h54.7¢▲ above by 45.3pp
VWAP 7d54.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$26.5K
50¢
$5.0K
45¢
$5
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$20.0K@ 55.0¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HectorHuangOver$20.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.