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Bears vs. Falcons

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $14.4KEvent: Bears vs. Falcons
50.5¢
Bears
49.5¢
Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 79 min agoofficial metadata 76 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Falcons · $161 net·3 wallets·$14.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBears$7.1K@ 51¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1
tracked
$1

3 verified profitable wallets: Falcons · $161 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 79 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 76 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Falcons" if Falcons win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Falcons, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game. This market will resolve to "Falcons" if Falcons win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $18.7K gross
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $10.7K gross
roldy2 linked markets · $4.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bears; negative values favor Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBears · $0
6hFalcons · $1
24hFalcons · $1

Bears price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bears price. Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Bears probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h50.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d55.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bears price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3.6K
55¢
$8.0K
50¢
← now
$12.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 51.5
0.0¢$7.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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0.0¢$400priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
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Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 49.5
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Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 67.5
0.0¢$204priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 60.5
0.0¢$200priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-2.5)
0.0¢$120priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 50.5
0.0¢$76priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.