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Shanghai: Marat Sharipov vs Taro Daniel

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $113.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $256.9KEvent: Shanghai: Marat Sharipov vs Taro Daniel
76.5¢
Marat Sharipov
23.5¢
Taro Daniel
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$115.0K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marat Sharipov · $13.7K net·6 wallets·$13.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 67¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$949
6h
−$71.8K
tracked
$115.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Marat Sharipov · $13.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marat Sharipov and Taro Daniel in the Shanghai, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marat Sharipov' if Marat Sharipov advances against Taro Daniel. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Marat Sharipov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Taro Daniel@ 59.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -31.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Taro Daniel@ 59.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -31.0pp
Latest book event: Marat Sharipov UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $33.1K → $35.0K · 74s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marat Sharipov; negative values favor Taro Daniel. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaro Daniel · $949
6hTaro Daniel · $71.8K
24hTaro Daniel · $71.8K

Marat Sharipov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marat Sharipov price. Taro Daniel fills are converted to the complementary Marat Sharipov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current76.5¢
VWAP 24h46.1¢▲ above by 30.4pp
VWAP 7d46.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marat Sharipov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$15.1K
85¢
$0
80¢
$87
75¢
← now
$262
70¢
$5.2K
65¢
$3.6K
60¢
$0
55¢
$594
50¢
$3
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.6K
35¢
$62.1K
30¢
$19.1K
25¢
$5.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$18
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 63.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 63.2¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 67.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 63.2¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTaro Daniel$14.6K@ 62.8¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Taro Daniel$78.7K
BUY VWAP 63.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.