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Cassis: Mathys Erhard vs Daniil Glinka

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $120.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $123.9KEvent: Cassis: Mathys Erhard vs Daniil Glinka
0.1¢
Mathys Erhard
100.0¢
Daniil Glinka
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:37 trades$123.7K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Glinka · $6.0K net·3 wallets·$6.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniil Glinka$39.4K@ 100¢·tenniz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$914
6h
+$41.5K
tracked
$123.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Glinka · $6.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -44.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Erhard and Daniil Glinka in the Cassis, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Erhard' if Mathys Erhard advances against Daniil Glinka. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Glinka' if Daniil Glinka advances against Mathys Erhard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mathys Erhard@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp
Latest book event: Daniil Glinka DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $23.4K → $4.8K · 37s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mathys Erhard; negative values favor Daniil Glinka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMathys Erhard · $914
6hMathys Erhard · $41.5K
24hMathys Erhard · $41.5K

Mathys Erhard price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mathys Erhard price. Daniil Glinka fills are converted to the complementary Mathys Erhard probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.0¢▼ below by 18.0pp
VWAP 7d18.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mathys Erhard price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$31.5K
40¢
$13.3K
35¢
$162
30¢
$360
25¢
$0
20¢
$25
15¢
$3.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$74.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaniil Glinka$39.4K@ 99.9¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—7 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Glinka$33.8K@ 98.4¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—12 minutes ago
BUYMathys Erhard$15.7K@ 49.7¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMathys Erhard$10.0K@ 41.5¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMathys Erhard$10.0K@ 46.9¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Mathys Erhard$41.4K
BUY VWAP 46.7¢·4 fills
tennizDaniil Glinka$33.8K
BUY VWAP 98.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.