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Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

● quote 45s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $59.3KEvent: Chargers vs. Chiefs
67.5¢
Chiefs
32.5¢
Chargers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection66Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$38.7K trackedsource coverage 65%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$8.6K@ 68¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Chiefs pressure: $25.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$25.6K
6h
+$38.7K
tracked
$38.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Chiefs · $17.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 81% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chiefs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chargers and Chiefs, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $24.2K gross
maz262 linked markets · $6.6K gross
0x251b…143c2 linked markets · $250 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chiefs@ 68.0¢22m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Chargers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $25.6K
6hChiefs · $38.7K
24hChiefs · $38.7K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Chargers fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.5¢
VWAP 24h68.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d68.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$38.7K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Chargers vs. Chiefs
21.5¢$45.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Spread: Chiefs (-8.5)
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0.0¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)
0.0¢$331priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 38.5
0.0¢$199priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardChiefs$17.0K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·2 fills
bilibikhChiefs$13.3K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.