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Spread: KC (-5.5)

● quote 36s ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $100.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $240.0KEvent: Colts vs. Chiefs
50.5¢
KC
49.5¢
IND
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:70 trades$101.6K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 56s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:IND · $28.7K net·2 wallets·$28.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKC$9.6K@ 49¢·0x7200…9299

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

KC pressure: $12.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$12.9K
6h
+$43.4K
tracked
$101.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: IND · $28.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from KC or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "KC" if the KC win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "IND".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between IND and KC, scheduled for September 20 at 8:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "KC" if the KC win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "IND". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY KC@ 51.0¢37m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY KC@ 51.0¢40m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY IND@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY KC@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor KC; negative values favor IND. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKC · $12.9K
6hKC · $43.4K
24hKC · $43.4K

KC price VWAP

Volume-weighted KC price. IND fills are converted to the complementary KC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h50.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d50.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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KC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$77.9K
45¢
$23.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

omoi0i0KC$50.4K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·9 fills
HomeRunHazardIND$28.6K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.