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Genoa: Francesco Passaro vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Sports→Settlement: Juan Pablo VarillasLiquidity: $253.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $415.6KEvent: Genoa: Francesco Passaro vs Juan Pablo Varillas
0.0¢
Francesco Passaro payout
100.0¢
Juan Pablo Varillas payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:87 trades$146.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 34 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Pablo Varillas · $48.4K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$53.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Pablo Varillas$15.0K@ 52¢·0x78be…bde0

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Juan Pablo Varillas. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-17 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Passaro and Juan Pablo Varillas in the Genoa, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Francesco Passaro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Francesco Passaro@ 68.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -37.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Juan Pablo Varillas@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +27.0pp
Latest book event: Juan Pablo Varillas UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $71.6K → $40.7K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Passaro; negative values favor Juan Pablo Varillas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJuan Pablo Varillas · $14.6K
6hJuan Pablo Varillas · $53.2K
24hJuan Pablo Varillas · $50.9K

Francesco Passaro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Passaro price. Juan Pablo Varillas fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Passaro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h34.5¢▼ below by 34.5pp
VWAP 7d34.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Passaro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3
60¢
$15.7K
55¢
$7.5K
50¢
$1.0K
45¢
$40.8K
40¢
$9.2K
35¢
$17.3K
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$46
20¢
$0
15¢
$22.6K
10¢
$12.7K
5¢
$5.6K
0¢
← now
$12.2K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancesco Passaro$10.6K@ 61.6¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJuan Pablo Varillas$14.0K@ 54.7¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJuan Pablo Varillas$15.0K@ 51.6¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Juan Pablo Varillas$31.9K
BUY VWAP 55.9¢·4 fills
HomeRunHazardJuan Pablo Varillas$18.0K
BUY VWAP 83.7¢·9 fills
Gambler661Juan Pablo Varillas$14.0K
BUY VWAP 54.7¢·1 fill
RunemupFrancesco Passaro$10.6K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.