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Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?

● quote 35s ago
Sports→Closes: 16 daysLiquidity: $33.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $47.9KEvent: StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: Winner
68.5¢
YES
31.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution66Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:2 trades$397 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 421 min agoofficial metadata 492 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$8.9K@ 62¢·Komo431

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$397

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Observed tape is 421 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 492 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.hltv.org/events/8057/starladder-starseries-fall-2026
Outcome meaning

•If this tournament is postponed after October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026, currently scheduled for September 17, 2026 to September 20, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be HLTV (https://www.hltv.org/events/8057/starladder-starseries-fall-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $3.3K → $3.7K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $397

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h63.4¢▲ above by 5.1pp
VWAP 7d39.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$27
60¢
$370
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.1K
45¢
$195
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
$17.4K
30¢
$2.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.