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US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $259.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $768.8KEvent: US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
81.5¢
Aryna Sabalenka
18.5¢
Jessica Pegula
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:181 trades$315.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jessica Pegula · $5.5K net·14 wallets·$75.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula$52.3K@ 37¢·0xwise

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Aryna Sabalenka pressure: $9.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$9.7K
6h
−$29.9K
tracked
$315.0K

14 verified profitable wallets: Jessica Pegula · $5.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 45

Since latest market sweep: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aryna Sabalenka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Jessica Pegula. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 83.0¢5m ago
Outcome checks pending
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Jessica Pegula@ 35.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 36.0¢59m ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp
Latest book event: Aryna Sabalenka UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $62.3K → $63.1K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aryna Sabalenka; negative values favor Jessica Pegula. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAryna Sabalenka · $9.7K
6hJessica Pegula · $29.9K
24hJessica Pegula · $13.1K

Aryna Sabalenka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aryna Sabalenka price. Jessica Pegula fills are converted to the complementary Aryna Sabalenka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current81.5¢
VWAP 24h66.3¢▲ above by 15.2pp
VWAP 7d66.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aryna Sabalenka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$33.8K
75¢
$0
70¢
$11.8K
65¢
$77.5K
60¢
$182.4K
55¢
$8
50¢
$9.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula$52.3K@ 37.0¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJessica Pegula$11.1K@ 37.0¢
Katalunygeaxvhj0xf6dd…ac58
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xwiseJessica Pegula$52.3K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
KatalunygeaxvhjJessica Pegula$20.8K
BUY VWAP 36.5¢·3 fills
0xa0f2…1848Aryna Sabalenka$15.5K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·13 fills
FlaznorpAryna Sabalenka$14.2K
BUY VWAP 68.9¢·7 fills
ferrariChampions2026Jessica Pegula$13.0K
BUY VWAP 35.3¢·3 fills
jtwyslljyAryna Sabalenka$12.8K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.