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Game Spread: Shelton (-4.5) vs Tiafoe (+4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $63.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $10.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
47.5¢
Shelton
52.5¢
Tiafoe
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$24.7K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 306 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTiafoe$20.0K@ 53¢·0xf559…f462

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$20.0K
tracked
$24.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 306 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Shelton" if Ben Shelton wins 4.5 or more total games than Frances Tiafoe in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Ben Shelton could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Shelton" if Ben Shelton wins 4.5 or more total games than Frances Tiafoe in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Ben Shelton could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Shelton; negative values favor Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShelton · $0
6hTiafoe · $20.0K
24hTiafoe · $24.7K

Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Shelton price. Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h47.2¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d47.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$24.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTiafoe$20.0K@ 53.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f462Tiafoe$24.7K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.