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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

● quote 59s ago
Tech→Science→Closes: about 1 yearLiquidity: $10.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.6KEvent: OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
54.0¢
YES
46.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly7Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution66Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$22.6K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$10.3K@ 32¢·Parz1vaI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$57
6h
−$5.1K
tracked
$22.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $5.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $57
6hNO · $5.1K
24hNO · $13.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.0¢
VWAP 24h63.0¢▼ below by 9.0pp
VWAP 7d64.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$14.8K
60¢
$5.4K
55¢
$5.4K
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.3K@ 32.4¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—about 20 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Parz1vaINo$10.3K
BUY VWAP 32.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.