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Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 14 minutesLiquidity: $61.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $156.9KEvent: Colts vs. Chiefs
51.5¢
Over
48.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 94%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$72.3K trackedsource coverage 76%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $8.3K net·3 wallets·$21.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$8.7K@ 60¢·mooseborzoi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $4.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.8K
6h
−$5.0K
tracked
$72.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: Over · $8.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 94% · priority 51

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Colts and Chiefs combine to score 49 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 49, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 8:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Colts and Chiefs combine to score 49 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 49, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Tiger2002 linked markets · $502.6K gross
mooseborzoi9 linked markets · $318.9K gross
surfandturf2 linked markets · $307.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Under DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $97 → $596 · 104s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $4.8K
6hUnder · $5.0K
24hUnder · $3.6K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h40.5¢▲ above by 11.0pp
VWAP 7d40.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$495
40¢
$70.2K
35¢
$1.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

matanovikOver$14.3K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·4 fills
mooseborzoiUnder$12.9K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·2 fills
quavooUnder$12.2K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.