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Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Alliance (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $183.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $264.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Alliance (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs
54.5¢
MIBR
45.5¢
Alliance
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:68 trades$111.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MIBR · $31.9K net·3 wallets·$34.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMIBR$18.2K@ 52¢·skyman44

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$74
6h
+$26.0K
tracked
$111.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: MIBR · $31.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against Alliance.

•This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against MIBR.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between MIBR and Alliance in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against Alliance. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against MIBR. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 11, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MIBR@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MIBR@ 52.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor MIBR; negative values favor Alliance. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMIBR · $74
6hMIBR · $26.0K
24hMIBR · $49.7K

MIBR price VWAP

Volume-weighted MIBR price. Alliance fills are converted to the complementary MIBR probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h52.8¢▲ above by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d52.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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MIBR price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$34.4K
50¢
← now
$77.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMIBR$10.2K@ 51.0¢
TrippleEX0x994e…6136
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYMIBR$10.4K@ 52.0¢
TrippleEX0x994e…6136
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYMIBR$18.2K@ 52.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cMIBR$33.2K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·11 fills
skyman44MIBR$18.2K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
TrippleEXMIBR$10.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.