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Spread: Bills (-5.5)

Sports→Settlement: BillsLiquidity: $45.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Lions vs. Bills
100.0¢
Bills payout
0.0¢
Lions payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lions · $91.5K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$106.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLions$58.0K@ 50¢·ferrariChampions2026

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Bills. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lions".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Lions and Bills, scheduled for September 17 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lions". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05635 linked markets · $515.9K gross
Herdonia4 linked markets · $273.6K gross
TheMonaLisaCode4 linked markets · $113.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Lions@ 50.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -40.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Lions@ 50.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -40.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Lions@ 50.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -38.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 50.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bills; negative values favor Lions. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBills · $3.3K
6hLions · $136.4K
24hLions · $100.9K

Bills price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bills price. Lions fills are converted to the complementary Bills probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h52.7¢▲ above by 47.3pp
VWAP 7d52.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bills price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.1K
90¢
$1.1K
85¢
$332
80¢
$9.6K
75¢
$6.1K
70¢
$10
65¢
$0
60¢
$4.6K
55¢
$100
50¢
$232.1K
45¢
$18.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLions$20.4K@ 50.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—1 day ago
BUYLions$58.0K@ 50.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—1 day ago
BUYBills$12.8K@ 51.0¢
WhattDoyoumean0x8660…93ed
🐋—1 day ago
BUYBills$50.0K@ 50.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—1 day ago
BUYLions$13.0K@ 51.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Lions$63.5K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills
FeromontBills$52.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills
quavooLions$41.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·25 fills
HomeRunHazardLions$32.4K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·5 fills
jackfive2021Lions$15.1K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·3 fills
0xf559…f462Lions$13.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
WhattDoyoumeanBills$12.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.