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M25 Sapporo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Seongchan Hong

Sports→Settlement: Keisuke SaitohLiquidity: $142.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $212.0KEvent: M25 Sapporo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Seongchan Hong
100.0¢
Keisuke Saitoh payout
0.0¢
Seongchan Hong payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:51 trades$68.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 105 min agoofficial metadata 66 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Keisuke Saitoh · $40.9K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$53.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKeisuke Saitoh$13.7K@ 55¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Keisuke Saitoh. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Keisuke Saitoh and Seongchan Hong in the M25 Sapporo, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keisuke Saitoh' if Keisuke Saitoh advances against Seongchan Hong. This market will resolve to 'Seongchan Hong' if Seongchan Hong advances against Keisuke Saitoh. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Keisuke Saitoh@ 55.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -37.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
Latest book event: Keisuke Saitoh DOWN 6.3pp · near-book depth $2.5K → $430 · 40s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Keisuke Saitoh; negative values favor Seongchan Hong. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSeongchan Hong · $3.2K
6hKeisuke Saitoh · $32.4K
24hKeisuke Saitoh · $32.4K

Keisuke Saitoh price VWAP

Volume-weighted Keisuke Saitoh price. Seongchan Hong fills are converted to the complementary Keisuke Saitoh probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h53.9¢▲ above by 46.1pp
VWAP 7d53.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Keisuke Saitoh price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.4K
90¢
$47
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.0K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$21.9K
50¢
$22.6K
45¢
$1.1K
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$3.6K
30¢
$2.9K
25¢
$14
20¢
$896
15¢
$92
10¢
$2.9K
5¢
$1.4K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKeisuke Saitoh$13.7K@ 55.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Keisuke Saitoh$29.6K
BUY VWAP 54.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.