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Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres

● quote 24s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $244.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $4.0KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
34.5¢
Miami Marlins
65.5¢
San Diego Padres
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$18.6K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$17.1K@ 65¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$17.1K
tracked
$18.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: San Diego Padres · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 64 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres, scheduled for September 18 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Miami Marlins; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMiami Marlins · $0
6hSan Diego Padres · $17.1K
24hSan Diego Padres · $18.6K

Miami Marlins price VWAP

Volume-weighted Miami Marlins price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Miami Marlins probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h35.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d35.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Miami Marlins price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$18.6K
30¢
← now
$4
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$17.1K@ 65.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingSan Diego Padres$17.1K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.