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Phan Thiet 4: Blake Ellis vs Hiroki Moriya

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $7.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $84.3KEvent: Phan Thiet 4: Blake Ellis vs Hiroki Moriya
74.5¢
Blake Ellis
25.5¢
Hiroki Moriya
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$22.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 24s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Blake Ellis · $19.1K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$19.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBlake Ellis$11.1K@ 76¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Hiroki Moriya pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
+$19.6K
tracked
$22.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: Blake Ellis · $19.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hiroki Moriya or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Blake Ellis and Hiroki Moriya in the Phan Thiet 4, originally scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Blake Ellis' if Blake Ellis advances against Hiroki Moriya. This market will resolve to 'Hiroki Moriya' if Hiroki Moriya advances against Blake Ellis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Blake Ellis@ 88.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h INVALIDATED -13.0pp
Latest book event: Hiroki Moriya DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $4 → $215 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Blake Ellis; negative values favor Hiroki Moriya. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHiroki Moriya · $1.1K
6hBlake Ellis · $19.6K
24hBlake Ellis · $19.6K

Blake Ellis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Blake Ellis price. Hiroki Moriya fills are converted to the complementary Blake Ellis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h73.1¢▲ above by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d73.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Blake Ellis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$23
80¢
$1.9K
75¢
$11.3K
70¢
← now
$1.1K
65¢
$8.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBlake Ellis$11.1K@ 76.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Blake Ellis$19.3K
BUY VWAP 71.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.