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UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $10.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $504.3KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)
88.5¢
Raoni Barcelos
11.5¢
Raul Rosas Jr.
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection49Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:166 trades$199.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raoni Barcelos · $251 net·15 wallets·$22.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaul Rosas Jr.$88.5K@ 59¢·surfandturf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Raul Rosas Jr. SETUP
What the tape says

Raul Rosas Jr. pressure: $97.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$97.2K
6h
−$100.7K
tracked
$199.9K

15 verified profitable wallets: Raoni Barcelos · $251 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 62

Since latest large flow: -48.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Raul Rosas Jr. or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Raul Rosas Jr." if Raul Rosas Jr. is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Raul Rosas Jr." if Raul Rosas Jr. is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Raul Rosas Jr.21m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Raul Rosas Jr.21m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Raul Rosas Jr.@ 60.0¢23m ago
15m INVALIDATED -24.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Raul Rosas Jr.@ 59.0¢33m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp
Latest book event: Raoni Barcelos DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $2.1K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raoni Barcelos; negative values favor Raul Rosas Jr.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaul Rosas Jr. · $97.2K
6hRaul Rosas Jr. · $100.7K
24hRaul Rosas Jr. · $89.5K

Raoni Barcelos price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raoni Barcelos price. Raul Rosas Jr. fills are converted to the complementary Raoni Barcelos probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current88.5¢
VWAP 24h41.9¢▲ above by 46.7pp
VWAP 7d41.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raoni Barcelos price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$0
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$2.0K
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.6K
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.9K
50¢
$9.2K
45¢
$2.7K
40¢
$190.9K
35¢
$13.7K
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$4.4K
20¢
$355
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRaul Rosas Jr.$88.5K@ 59.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYRaoni Barcelos$10.5K@ 42.0¢
WhattDoyoumean0x8660…93ed
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYRaul Rosas Jr.$27.4K@ 58.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—38 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

surfandturfRaul Rosas Jr.$88.5K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
Sassy-BucketRaul Rosas Jr.$27.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
WhattDoyoumeanRaoni Barcelos$10.5K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.