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UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: Brady HiestandLiquidity: $603.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $512.1KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card)
100.0¢
Brady Hiestand payout
0.0¢
Rinya Nakamura payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:150 trades$180.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 24 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Brady Hiestand · $17.1K net·18 wallets·$25.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRinya Nakamura$93.8K@ 77¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Brady Hiestand. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-27 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Brady Hiestand" if Brady Hiestand is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rinya Nakamura at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Rinya Nakamura" if Rinya Nakamura is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Brady Hiestand" if Brady Hiestand is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rinya Nakamura at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Rinya Nakamura" if Rinya Nakamura is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Rinya Nakamura@ 71.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Rinya Nakamura@ 78.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Rinya Nakamura DOWN 12.5pp · near-book depth $16 → $1 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Brady Hiestand; negative values favor Rinya Nakamura. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBrady Hiestand · $4.4K
6hRinya Nakamura · $100.9K
24hRinya Nakamura · $100.8K

Brady Hiestand price VWAP

Volume-weighted Brady Hiestand price. Rinya Nakamura fills are converted to the complementary Brady Hiestand probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h27.0¢▲ above by 73.0pp
VWAP 7d27.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Brady Hiestand price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$68
65¢
$469
60¢
$265
55¢
$203
50¢
$53
45¢
$174
40¢
$908
35¢
$2.3K
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$4.1K
20¢
$163.8K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRinya Nakamura$18.9K@ 77.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRinya Nakamura$93.8K@ 77.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRinya Nakamura$11.6K@ 77.0¢
WhattDoyoumean0x8660…93ed
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketRinya Nakamura$112.7K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·2 fills
matanovikBrady Hiestand$17.7K
BUY VWAP 23.1¢·8 fills
WhattDoyoumeanRinya Nakamura$11.6K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.