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Spread: FC Bayern München (-3.5)

● quote 18s ago
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $205.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.0KEvent: FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin - More Markets
52.5¢
FC Bayern München
47.5¢
1. FC Union Berlin
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$33.8K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:1. FC Union Berlin · $1.2K net·3 wallets·$7.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFC Bayern München$13.5K@ 50¢·gransaaa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

1. FC Union Berlin pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
−$2.9K
tracked
$33.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: 1. FC Union Berlin · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 49

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from 1. FC Union Berlin or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 4 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FC Union Berlin".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for September 18 at 2:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FC Union Berlin". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY FC Bayern München@ 51.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Bayern München; negative values favor 1. FC Union Berlin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h1. FC Union Berlin · $2.9K
6h1. FC Union Berlin · $2.9K
24hFC Bayern München · $18.9K

FC Bayern München price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Bayern München price. 1. FC Union Berlin fills are converted to the complementary FC Bayern München probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h49.3¢▲ above by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d49.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Bayern München price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$16.4K
45¢
$17.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFC Bayern München$13.5K@ 50.0¢
gransaaa0x4d30…a42d
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

gransaaaFC Bayern München$23.0K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.