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Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

● quote 10s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $39.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $155.4KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
20.5¢
Movistar KOI
79.5¢
Natus Vincere
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$62.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $114 net·2 wallets·$114 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$16.2K@ 54¢·Uniform123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Movistar KOI pressure: $19.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$19.2K
6h
+$2.7K
tracked
$62.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $114 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Movistar KOI or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 21:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI wins 2 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Natus Vincere and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI wins 2 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fantasy77882 linked markets · $62.4K gross
bloodmaster2 linked markets · $31.0K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $20.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Movistar KOI@ 50.0¢51m ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: Natus Vincere UP 14.5pp · near-book depth $9 → $7 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Movistar KOI; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMovistar KOI · $19.2K
6hMovistar KOI · $2.7K
24hMovistar KOI · $4.6K

Movistar KOI price VWAP

Volume-weighted Movistar KOI price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Movistar KOI probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h46.7¢▼ below by 26.2pp
VWAP 7d46.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Movistar KOI price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.4K
45¢
$59.7K
40¢
$265
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$16.2K@ 54.0¢
Uniform1230xe548…a9fe
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

vjnnMovistar KOI$25.4K
BUY VWAP 47.3¢·5 fills
Uniform123Natus Vincere$16.2K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.