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Ljubljana: Francesca Jones vs Alja Senica

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $180.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $262.8KEvent: Ljubljana: Francesca Jones vs Alja Senica
100.0¢
Francesca Jones
0.1¢
Alja Senica
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$75.9K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesca Jones · $21.8K net·12 wallets·$43.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFrancesca Jones$8.4K@ 86¢·0x658e…d758

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alja Senica pressure: $6.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.3K
6h
+$17.9K
tracked
$75.9K

12 verified profitable wallets: Francesca Jones · $21.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alja Senica or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-22 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesca Jones and Alja Senica in the Ljubljana, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Jones' if Francesca Jones advances against Alja Senica. This market will resolve to 'Alja Senica' if Alja Senica advances against Francesca Jones. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Francesca Jones UP 3.2pp · near-book depth $69.2K → $5.1K · 15s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesca Jones; negative values favor Alja Senica. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlja Senica · $6.3K
6hFrancesca Jones · $17.9K
24hFrancesca Jones · $17.9K

Francesca Jones price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesca Jones price. Alja Senica fills are converted to the complementary Francesca Jones probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h82.7¢▲ above by 17.2pp
VWAP 7d82.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesca Jones price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$29.5K
90¢
$191
85¢
$14.1K
80¢
$3.3K
75¢
$3.5K
70¢
$2.5K
65¢
$9.0K
60¢
$9.1K
55¢
$3.3K
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FlaznorpFrancesca Jones$26.7K
BUY VWAP 97.3¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.