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Biella: Jay Clarke vs Felix Gill

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $231.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $381.2KEvent: Biella: Jay Clarke vs Felix Gill
100.0¢
Jay Clarke
0.1¢
Felix Gill
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:78 trades$147.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jay Clarke · $13.8K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$26.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJay Clarke$26.3K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Felix Gill pressure: $19.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.5K
6h
−$40.3K
tracked
$147.1K

10 verified profitable wallets: Jay Clarke · $13.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -65.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Felix Gill or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-25 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jay Clarke and Felix Gill in the Biella, originally scheduled for September 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jay Clarke' if Jay Clarke advances against Felix Gill. This market will resolve to 'Felix Gill' if Felix Gill advances against Jay Clarke. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Felix Gill@ 66.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
Latest book event: Jay Clarke UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.0K → $57.0K · 15s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jay Clarke; negative values favor Felix Gill. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFelix Gill · $19.5K
6hFelix Gill · $40.3K
24hFelix Gill · $40.3K

Jay Clarke price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jay Clarke price. Felix Gill fills are converted to the complementary Jay Clarke probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.5¢▲ above by 34.5pp
VWAP 7d65.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jay Clarke price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$39.9K
90¢
$6.3K
85¢
$3.9K
80¢
$5.6K
75¢
$24
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$17.6K
50¢
$13.8K
45¢
$12.0K
40¢
$43.7K
35¢
$2.4K
30¢
$19
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJay Clarke$26.3K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYJay Clarke$15.0K@ 57.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJay Clarke$10.0K@ 52.5¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFelix Gill$11.3K@ 58.6¢0xe4d6…308a🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe4d6…308aFelix Gill$41.4K
BUY VWAP 54.1¢·9 fills
kkookkooJay Clarke$15.0K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
0x78be…bde0Jay Clarke$10.0K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.