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Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Sports→Settlement: Pittsburgh PiratesLiquidity: $52.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $75.5KEvent: Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
100.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates payout
0.0¢
Kansas City Royals payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pittsburgh Pirates · $6.0K net·3 wallets·$6.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKansas City Royals$30.9K@ 56¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Pittsburgh Pirates. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for September 18 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbbf3…aa3a2 linked markets · $11.6K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $9.6K gross
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $180 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pittsburgh Pirates; negative values favor Kansas City Royals. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKansas City Royals · $1.1K
6hKansas City Royals · $26.0K
24hKansas City Royals · $26.0K

Pittsburgh Pirates price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates price. Kansas City Royals fills are converted to the complementary Pittsburgh Pirates probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h45.7¢▲ above by 54.3pp
VWAP 7d45.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pittsburgh Pirates price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$37.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$5
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKansas City Royals$30.9K@ 56.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafKansas City Royals$30.9K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.