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Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5

● quote 22s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $151.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $10.9KEvent: Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
48.5¢
Over
51.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$26.1K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $26.1K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$26.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$20.0K@ 51¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $5.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.0K
6h
−$26.1K
tracked
$26.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Under · $26.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates combine to score 9 or more runs in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for September 18 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $5.0K
6hUnder · $26.1K
24hUnder · $26.1K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h48.5¢▼ below by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d48.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$26.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$20.0K@ 51.2¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaUnder$25.0K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.