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Serbia vs. Netherlands: Serbia O/U 3.5

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $1.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $10Event: Serbia vs. Netherlands - More Markets
0.9¢
Over
99.2¢
Under
0.9¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution67Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:4 trades$26.6K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 160 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$10.2K@ 100¢·LetsGoFishing

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$26.6K
tracked
$26.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 4 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 160 minutes old.
  • •Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Serbia and Netherlands, scheduled for September 27 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Serbia score 4 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If Serbia score less than 4 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on Serbia's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Serbia and Netherlands, scheduled for September 27 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Serbia score 4 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If Serbia score less than 4 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on Serbia's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
LetsGoFishing3 linked markets · $391.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $26.6K
24hUnder · $26.6K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.9¢
VWAP 24h0.6¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d0.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$26.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$10.2K@ 99.5¢
LetsGoFishing0x8fd6…cad0
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LetsGoFishingUnder$26.6K
BUY VWAP 99.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.