Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: 9 daysLiquidity: $57.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $58.5KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

21.9¢

YES

78.1¢

1.6¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:8 trades$8.6K trackedsource coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 124 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $3.7K net·3 wallets·$5.8K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$3.6K@ 82¢·boyau74

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$385

tracked

$8.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $3.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.6¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 124 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-01 04:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x06dc…452416 linked markets · $169.8K gross

justdance11 linked markets · $113.8K gross

boyau7410 linked markets · $60.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $385

24hNO · $7.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current21.9¢

VWAP 24h27.5¢▼ below by 5.6pp

VWAP 7d59.7¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

$4.1K

90¢

$1.1K

85¢

80¢

$3.6K

75¢

$3.0K

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

$1.0K

40¢

35¢

$2.3K

30¢

25¢

$5.9K

20¢

← now

$1.7K

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.