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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

● quote 10s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $38.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $467.1KEvent: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
0.1¢
New York Mets
100.0¢
Washington Nationals
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution61Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:154 trades$190.8K trackedsource coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Washington Nationals · $39.0K net·10 wallets·$63.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWashington Nationals$9.5K@ 63¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Washington Nationals pressure: $28.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$28.5K
6h
−$93.0K
tracked
$190.8K

10 verified profitable wallets: Washington Nationals · $39.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +30.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 30.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Washington Nationals or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-02 22:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, scheduled for September 25 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Washington Nationals42m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Washington Nationals42m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Washington Nationals@ 70.0¢48m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Washington Nationals@ 71.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp
Latest book event: Washington Nationals UP 12.5pp · near-book depth $81 → $18.3K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor New York Mets; negative values favor Washington Nationals. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWashington Nationals · $28.5K
6hWashington Nationals · $93.0K
24hWashington Nationals · $100.3K

New York Mets price VWAP

Volume-weighted New York Mets price. Washington Nationals fills are converted to the complementary New York Mets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h36.3¢▼ below by 36.2pp
VWAP 7d36.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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New York Mets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$5.2K
65¢
$2.8K
60¢
$73
55¢
$5.0K
50¢
$12.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$40.0K
35¢
$38.7K
30¢
$52.5K
25¢
$7.5K
20¢
$5.3K
15¢
$9.2K
10¢
$12.2K
5¢
$59
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

taylorsversionWashington Nationals$65.4K
BUY VWAP 65.9¢·10 fills
HomeRunHazardWashington Nationals$16.8K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·5 fills
0x1610…ae49Washington Nationals$14.7K
BUY VWAP 44.5¢·2 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rWashington Nationals$11.5K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.