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Plovdiv 4: Pavel Lagutin vs Svyatoslav Gulin

● quote 19 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $26.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.7KEvent: Plovdiv 4: Pavel Lagutin vs Svyatoslav Gulin
100.0¢
Pavel Lagutin
0.1¢
Svyatoslav Gulin
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$54.4K tracked23% 🐋source coverage 59%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 304 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Svyatoslav Gulin · $1.0K net·2 wallets·$1.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLPavel Lagutin$14.0K@ 100¢·tenniz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$14.0K
tracked
$54.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Svyatoslav Gulin · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 19 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 304 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-28 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Pavel Lagutin and Svyatoslav Gulin in the Plovdiv 4, Bulgaria, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pavel Lagutin' if Pavel Lagutin advances against Svyatoslav Gulin. This market will resolve to 'Svyatoslav Gulin' if Svyatoslav Gulin advances against Pavel Lagutin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pavel Lagutin; negative values favor Svyatoslav Gulin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPavel Lagutin · $0
6hSvyatoslav Gulin · $14.0K
24hPavel Lagutin · $8.7K

Pavel Lagutin price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pavel Lagutin price. Svyatoslav Gulin fills are converted to the complementary Pavel Lagutin probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h93.4¢▲ above by 6.6pp
VWAP 7d93.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pavel Lagutin price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$45.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$29
80¢
$0
75¢
$3.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.0K
45¢
$1.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLPavel Lagutin$14.0K@ 99.9¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYPavel Lagutin$13.8K@ 99.0¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYPavel Lagutin$13.2K@ 98.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennizPavel Lagutin$13.8K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
0x004c…bb89Pavel Lagutin$13.2K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.