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Penguins vs. Golden Knights

● quote 26s ago
Sports→HockeyCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $237.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $87.4KEvent: Penguins vs. Golden Knights
33.5¢
Penguins
66.5¢
Golden Knights
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$32.5K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 38 min agoofficial metadata 48s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGolden Knights$9.2K@ 66¢·chubbytoro

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Penguins pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
+$1.7K
tracked
$32.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Golden Knights · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 38 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Penguins or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins".

•If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 17 at 10:00PM ET: If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins". If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $735 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Golden Knights@ 67.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Penguins; negative values favor Golden Knights. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPenguins · $1.1K
6hPenguins · $1.7K
24hGolden Knights · $29.1K

Penguins price VWAP

Volume-weighted Penguins price. Golden Knights fills are converted to the complementary Penguins probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h33.8¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d33.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Penguins price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$7
30¢
← now
$32.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

chubbytoroGolden Knights$23.7K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.