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Hangzhou Open: Valentin Royer vs Adam Walton

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $255.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $194.3KEvent: Hangzhou Open: Valentin Royer vs Adam Walton
96.5¢
Valentin Royer
3.5¢
Adam Walton
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:74 trades$72.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Valentin Royer · $4.3K net·6 wallets·$4.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAdam Walton$13.3K@ 52¢·ORI-

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Adam Walton SETUP
What the tape says

Adam Walton pressure: $13.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$13.4K
6h
−$36.8K
tracked
$72.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: Valentin Royer · $4.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 72

Since latest large flow: -49.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Adam Walton or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Royer and Adam Walton in the Hangzhou Open, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Royer' if Valentin Royer advances against Adam Walton. This market will resolve to 'Adam Walton' if Adam Walton advances against Valentin Royer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Adam Walton@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -31.0pp
Latest book event: Adam Walton DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $25.8K → $5.0K · 45s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valentin Royer; negative values favor Adam Walton. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdam Walton · $13.4K
6hAdam Walton · $36.8K
24hAdam Walton · $35.8K

Valentin Royer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valentin Royer price. Adam Walton fills are converted to the complementary Valentin Royer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.5¢
VWAP 24h59.6¢▲ above by 36.9pp
VWAP 7d59.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valentin Royer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$385
85¢
$16.1K
80¢
$59
75¢
$2.8K
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$5.8K
60¢
$0
55¢
$845
50¢
$4.3K
45¢
$44.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAdam Walton$10.0K@ 13.8¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYAdam Walton$10.0K@ 54.1¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAdam Walton$13.3K@ 52.3¢
ORI-0x3414…51a1
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackAdam Walton$15.0K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·2 fills
ORI-Adam Walton$13.3K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·1 fill
MarcoliAdam Walton$10.0K
BUY VWAP 13.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.